Regression valuation

Fit an ordinary least squares regression of a valuation multiple against a fundamental driver. Each company's residual quantifies how much it trades above or below where the comp set says it should. Inspired by Meritech's growth-adjusted multiple framework.Snapshot: 2026-08-04.

Universe: Consumer Internet, Media & Gaming · 7 companies
Model
y = -1.35·x + 5.37
n = 7 · R² = 0.016
Most undervalued vs. model
Trading below the regression line
TickerActualModelResidual
MTCHMatch Group, Inc.3.5x5.3x-34.0%
RBLXRoblox Corporation3.3x4.6x-27.1%
DUOLDuolingo, Inc.3.9x5.0x-23.2%
SPOTSpotify Technology S.A.4.3x5.0x-15.0%
NFLXNetflix, Inc.5.7x5.1x11.4%
Most overvalued vs. model
Trading above the regression line
TickerActualModelResidual
AAPLApple Inc.8.9x5.1x76.1%
METAMeta Platforms, Inc.5.4x4.8x11.5%
NFLXNetflix, Inc.5.7x5.1x11.4%
SPOTSpotify Technology S.A.4.3x5.0x-15.0%
DUOLDuolingo, Inc.3.9x5.0x-23.2%