Regression valuation

Fit an ordinary least squares regression of a valuation multiple against a fundamental driver. Each company's residual quantifies how much it trades above or below where the comp set says it should. Inspired by Meritech's growth-adjusted multiple framework.Snapshot: 2026-08-04.

Universe: Fintech · 20 companies
Model
y = -0.44·x + 4.92
n = 20 · R² = 0.000
Most undervalued vs. model
Trading below the regression line
TickerActualModelResidual
MQMarqeta, Inc.0.9x4.8x-80.6%
SQBlock, Inc.1.2x4.8x-74.2%
PYPLPayPal Holdings, Inc.1.5x4.9x-69.5%
FOURShift4 Payments, Inc.1.6x4.8x-67.4%
NUNu Holdings Ltd.1.7x4.7x-63.6%
Most overvalued vs. model
Trading above the regression line
TickerActualModelResidual
HOODRobinhood Markets, Inc.17.8x4.8x272.2%
VVisa Inc.14.0x4.8x192.2%
MAMastercard Incorporated12.9x4.8x167.0%
ADYEYAdyen N.V.7.5x4.8x55.1%
AFRMAffirm Holdings, Inc.6.0x4.6x30.0%