Regression valuation

Fit an ordinary least squares regression of a valuation multiple against a fundamental driver. Each company's residual quantifies how much it trades above or below where the comp set says it should. Inspired by Meritech's growth-adjusted multiple framework.Snapshot: 2026-08-04.

Universe: Industrial, Aerospace & Defense · 26 companies
Model
y = -2.11·x + 4.58
n = 26 · R² = 0.013
Most undervalued vs. model
Trading below the regression line
TickerActualModelResidual
BTUPeabody Energy Corporation0.6x4.2x-86.3%
NRGNRG Energy, Inc.1.4x4.3x-68.3%
MTZMasTec, Inc.1.2x3.7x-67.0%
ITRIItron, Inc.1.6x4.5x-64.3%
LMTLockheed Martin Corporation1.8x4.3x-57.8%
Most overvalued vs. model
Trading above the regression line
TickerActualModelResidual
LASRnLIGHT, Inc.12.4x4.0x208.2%
CCJCameco Corporation10.9x4.4x147.3%
SRESempra6.8x4.6x48.0%
DDominion Energy, Inc.6.0x4.3x40.8%
NEENextEra Energy, Inc.5.8x4.2x38.7%