Regression valuation

Fit an ordinary least squares regression of a valuation multiple against a fundamental driver. Each company's residual quantifies how much it trades above or below where the comp set says it should. Inspired by Meritech's growth-adjusted multiple framework.Snapshot: 2026-08-04.

Universe: Infrastructure & Data Software · 20 companies
Model
y = 22.77·x + 2.03
n = 20 · R² = 0.318
Most undervalued vs. model
Trading below the regression line
TickerActualModelResidual
TEAMAtlassian Corporation3.9x11.8x-67.0%
ORCLOracle Corporation5.7x12.0x-53.0%
ESTCElastic N.V.3.2x6.4x-50.0%
GTLBGitLab Inc.4.0x7.9x-49.4%
DOCNDigitalOcean Holdings, Inc.10.4x17.6x-41.2%
Most overvalued vs. model
Trading above the regression line
TickerActualModelResidual
AIC3.ai, Inc.4.1x0.2x1877.7%
NETCloudflare, Inc.32.5x13.7x138.0%
DDOGDatadog, Inc.20.2x11.8x70.7%
FROGJFrog Ltd.13.9x9.2x51.6%
MSFTMicrosoft Corporation9.4x6.5x45.0%